CFL Previews - August 27-28 - Week Nine

Football Betting Lines

08/25/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -

CALGARY STAMPEDERS (6-1) at BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS (1-6)

DATE & TIME: Friday, August 27, 10:30 p.m. (et).

GAME NOTES: A couple of teams heading in opposite directions in the CFL's Western Division clash at Empire Field in Vancouver for the second time in less than a month as the British Columbia Lions entertain the Calgary Stampeders on Friday night.

Last week all of the clubs in the division enjoyed a bye, giving Calgary more time to plot how to distance itself from the rest of the league while BC was left to wonder how it got caught in this mess in the first place.

Since defeating Edmonton in the season opener by a score of 25-10, the Lions have headed south and fast, losing six in a row to match the Eskimos for last place in the division standings. On August 12, BC barely put up a fight as Saskatchewan rolled to a 37-13 victory at home, continuing the longest losing streak in the career of head coach Wally Buono who has a total of 236 regular- season victories to his credit.

Aside from receiver Geroy Simon catching the 800th pass of his career, placing him ninth in CFL history, and Ryan Phillips recording two more interceptions to give him 11 all-time against the Roughriders, little went right for the Lions. Newly named quarterback Jarious Jackson converted 18-of-31 passes for 194 yards, but he was picked off twice and sacked five times. Running back Yonus Davis scored on a 51-yard run in the third quarter, while kicker Paul McCallum's 32-yard field goal in the first period represented the first points scored in the opening frame in any game this year for the Lions.

While British Columbia is staring up at the rest of the division, outside of Edmonton of course, Calgary is rolling along after blowing the doors off the Eskimos two weeks ago in an ugly 56-15 final at home. Henry Burris hit on 21- of-29 passes for 305 yards and three touchdowns and even backup Drew Tate got in on the action as he converted all four of his pass attempts and added a passing TD of his own in the onslaught. Nik Lewis, one of eight players with at least one reception, did the most damage with five catches for 117 yards and a pair of majors for the home team. While the Stamps were putting up 504 yards of total offense, they were limiting Edmonton to a mere 283 yards and a total of 13 first downs.

Over the last seven meetings against the Lions, Burris has tossed at least one touchdown pass and actually has a total of 12 TD strikes against just three interceptions during that span. The signal-caller also has five rushing touchdowns to his credit since 2008 versus BC. Adding to the offensive attack for the Stampeders has been running back Joffrey Reynolds who for the most part has had quite a bit of success against the Lions since the start of the 2008 campaign. He has gained at least 100 yards rushing in five of the seven meetings, averaging no less than 5.4 yards per carry in any of those contests, which means he and Burris have put together a solid one-two offensive punch that BC has yet to stop.

The Lions, who are averaging just 108.3 yards per game on the ground in 2010, have turned the ball over 18 times through seven outings and that hasn't helped matters either. Adding to the confusion is the ever-changing quarterback position which has seen Jackson, Travis Lulay and Casey Printers all taking their share of the snaps. Certainly that wasn't the intention coming into the season, but after Printers went out with an injury and Lulay proved to be ineffective, the original plans were thrown out the window. Printers, who has completed 56.8 percent of his passes for two touchdowns and as many interceptions, could be back on the field this week, but given how much this group has gone through nothing is guaranteed.

After seven weeks of the season, the passing attack for the Lions was dismal at best, completing a combined 58 percent of pass attempts for a mere three touchdowns and a total of 10 INTs. The combined efficiency rating was a paltry 66.4, compared to Calgary which was at 99.2 thanks to having a league-high 18 TD passes. Not only do the Stamps possess one of the top offensive units in the league, the defense has managed to hold opponents to just 310.1 ypg, by far the best mark in the CFL this year thus far.

Coming into the 2010 campaign, Calgary held a 91-71-5 advantage over the Lions in the all-time regular-season series dating back to 1954. The Stamps won the first meeting of the season a few weeks back with a 27-22 victory on the road as Burris threw for a pair of touchdowns in the seventh straight series victory for Calgary. The teams are scheduled to meet again at the end of September and late in October to complete the season series.

If it were just the Calgary offense taking on the Lions that would be one thing, but the aggressive nature of the Stamps defense is another killer attribute that BC simply is not prepared to fight off. Expect another win for the Stampeders this week, but by a much larger margin than they had in the first meeting of the season.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Calgary 44, British Columbia 18

SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS (5-2) AT EDMONTON ESKIMOS (1-6)

DATE & TIME: Saturday, August 28, 7:00 p.m. (et).

GAME NOTES: The Edmonton Eskimos soldier on this weekend as they entertain the Saskatchewan Roughriders in a Western Division showdown at Commonwealth Stadium on Saturday night.

Both teams enjoyed a week off recently, although the Roughriders probably had a better time of it than Edmonton seeing as how Saskatchewan is currently second in the division standings with a record of 5-2 and the Eskimos are scraping the bottom of the barrel with just one win in seven tries. Except for a 28-25 win over British Columbia, the other team in the division that is a mere 1-6 thus far, Edmonton has had little to be proud of to this point. The last time the team hit the field was on August 15 and they hit it hard, suffering a 56-15 setback at the hands of the Calgary Stampeders on the road. The loss was the second in a row and prompted a number of changes on the Edmonton coaching staff.

First, it was announced that assistant coach Danny Kepley had decided to retire on August 18, a move that surprised head coach Richie Hall. Shortly thereafter it was announced that offensive line coach Jeff Bleamer had been relieved of his duties. In hopes of changing the team's fortunes at this stage, coach Hall brought on Mark Nelson to handle the linebackers and Tim Prinsen to take care of the offensive line. Only time will tell whether these alterations to the coaching staff bear any fruit here in 2010.

But one thing is for sure, Edmonton needed a shakeup in order to show that it was unwilling to go through the rest of the campaign without making some sort of effort. Through seven weeks of the season, the Eskimos were second-to-last in the league in scoring with a mere 20.7 ppg and dead last in terms of points allowed, permitting an unhealthy 34.1 ppg. Playing into all of those numbers was the team's inability to not only maintain possession of the ball (24 giveaways) but also to force opponents into turnovers (10 forced) which means they are by far the worst team in the CFL with a minus-14 in the turnover department.

Against the Stamps the last time out, Edmonton was charged with nine penalties for a loss of 141 yards, fumbled the ball four times and was tabbed with a pair of interceptions as three different players took their turn at quarterback. Starter Ricky Ray went from being ineffective (2-of-5 for 19 yards and a sack) to taking a seat on the bench with an injury. Jared Zabransky hit on half of his 16 pass attempts for 107 yards and a score, but he was picked off once and suffered three sacks as well. Jason Maas converted 5-of-8 throws for 62 yards and a pick for the inept unit. If there was anything positive to take from the outing it was that kick returner Kelly Campbell was named the CFL's Special Teams Player of the Week after bringing back five punts for 162 yards, including one for a major on a 95-yard gallop. He also returned five kickoffs for an additional 141 yards.

As for the Roughriders, their offense was hitting all the right notes against British Columbia in their 37-13 victory two weeks ago. However, garnering some attention of his own was linebacker Jerrell Freeman who was named the CFL's Defensive Player of the Week after logging the first three sacks of his professional career. Not to be ignored was quarterback Darian Durant who threw for 223 yards and a touchdown and also scored two of the team's four rushing majors in the decision. Durant, who suffered a pair of INTs, gained a team- best 67 yards on just nine carries, while running back Wes Cates contributed 61 yards and two touchdowns on 13 attempts coming out of the backfield.

With seven weeks in the books Durant was second in the league with 2,263 passing yards, yet his 60.3 percent completion rate was less than impressive and his 11 touchdowns against nine interceptions doesn't exactly strike fear into opposing defenses. More positive was the overall production of Cates who was not only third in the CFL with 558 yards on 88 carries, but he was by far the top scoring running back with seven majors in as many games and thanks to one receiving TD he was first in the CFL in touchdowns overall. In 14 career games against Edmonton, Cates has scored a total of seven touchdowns while rushing for 707 yards and registering 380 yards receiving.

On a personal level, Durant has had his issues against the Edmonton defense since making his first appearance against the club last year. In just four games the signal-caller has issued four INTs and been sacked a total of 11 times, but at the same time he has averaged about 245 ypg through the air as well.

Edmonton has been a slow starter all season, scoring just 14 combined points in the opening quarter, and the team has been notorious for lying down in the fourth as well, putting up just 24 points in that period. In between the squad has generated an impressive 107 points in 2010, but until the unit is able to put together a solid effort from the opening kick to the final gun it will never seriously contend on a regular basis.

For the Roughriders, they too need some time to warm up when they hit the field, tallying a total of 34 points in the first period this year, but once they get started they are hard to hold down, improving upon their scoring in each successive quarter before finishing off with an average of more than 11 ppg in the fourth alone.

Believe it or not, the Eskimos actually gave Saskatchewan a fight in their first meeting of the season back on July 17 when the Roughriders slipped by with a 24-20 victory. Edmonton led by a touchdown heading into the fourth quarter, at which point the Roughriders picked up a TD pass from Darian Durant, a single and a 23-yard field goal late in the meeting to secure the victory at home.

Ray threw for 319 yards, but was sacked three times and failed to get his squad into the end zone, while Durant accounted for 238 yards through the air and another 49 on the ground as Saskatchewan logged 234 rushing yards, against just 94 for the visiting Eskimos.

In terms of the all-time, regular-season series between the two clubs, the victory for the Roughriders last month means Edmonton now leads by a count of 106-80-2 dating back to 1949 campaign. If there is any bright spot to this matchup for the Eskimos it is that Saskatchewan has lost two of its three road games so far this season.

The Esks are going to need more than just some changes on the sidelines to improve this year, and with the issues at quarterback right now they are ripe for the picking.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Saskatchewan 35, Edmonton 23.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Season Predictions: 19-11; Last Week: 1-1.

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College Football Betting Tips From a Pro

While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.

Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.

The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.

These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.

Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.

Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.

I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.

Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.

It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.

As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.

Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.