England has more to worry about then just Green

Soccer Betting Lines

06/12/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's safe to say that the English tabloids will come up with all kinds of clever headlines to describe the horrendous goal that Robert Green conceded in the Three Lion's 1-1 draw with the United States on Saturday to open the team's 2010 World Cup.

And while the enduring image of this match will be of a horrified Green desperately scrambling in vain to keep out Clint Dempsey's low shot, which slipped between his hands and trickled over the goal line, English fans have more to worry about than just their goalkeeping situation.

It's safe to say that Green will probably not take up the same position between the posts when England faces Algeria on June 18 in its next match, with either David James or Joe Hart manning that post.

James is the most experienced of the three, but at 39-years-of-age its fair to question if he still has it, while Hart had the best season of the three for Birmingham but is short on experience at just 23.

The goalkeeping situation was one of the big questions prior to the tournament, but there were a few other unsettling things that England manager Fabio Capello must work out.

The Italian is the highest-paid manager in the tournament and he will have to earn every penny if he is to take England as far as expected in this summer's competition.

Rio Ferdinand was given the captain's armband prior to the tournament before he suffered a knee injury that ruled him out. This left the injury-prone Ledley King to fill in for the Manchester United man, but he not-so- surprisingly lasted just one half before being replaced by Jamie Carragher, seemingly because of another injury.

Not only is Capello operating with a thin back line, but one that is also fairly slow.

American striker Jozy Altidore exploited this midway through the second half when he ran right by Carragher on the left wing and nearly bagged the winning goal, with Green tipping Altidore's shot onto the post.

If King is again battling injury problems it leaves only Carragher, Matthew Upson and the uncapped Michael Dawson as options in central defense to pair with John Terry.

There were a few bright spots in the England midfield as Steven Gerrard scored the team's lone goal and provided a number of dangerous crosses from the wings, while Aaron Lennon's pace proved troublesome on the right side.

But once again Frank Lampard struggled to make an impact, which has become a consistent theme for the talented Chelsea man.

It was hard to determine whether or not Wayne Rooney was on the field until the final 20 minutes, and he only made an impact when he began to drop further into the midfield to gain possession after failing to get decent service.

Gerrard's goal came just four minutes into the match and it looked like England would coast to victory from there, but instead the Americans worked their way back into the game and came within inches of taking the lead in the second half.

England put together good spells of play when they moved the ball along the ground and got it wide in space, but toward the end of the game they lacked creativity and got caught up in knocking long balls toward the head of substitute Peter Crouch instead of working it through the midfield.

The United States is no longer a lightweight in the world of soccer, but this was not a European heavyweight like Germany or Italy that gave England such a tough time.

We have heard so much about the famous 1950 meeting between these two teams when the USA stunned England, 1-0.

And while that result was an embarrassment for the British and they will now have to live with failing to beat the Yanks for a second time in the World Cup, there are clearly more important things to worry about.

A draw with the USA should be treated like losing to your little brother in a game of backyard basketball, its annoying but not the end of the world.

What will be treated like a tragedy, however, will be if England fails to advance beyond the quarterfinals for the fourth successive World Cup.

And based on what we saw on Saturday, there is a lot of work to be done in order to avoid another crisis.

Cbssportskine Soccer Betting News

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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