Extra Point - Week 10 Review: Living on the edge

Football Betting Lines

11/05/2006 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montana Grizzly fans I spoke with before the game had a kind of nervous confidence to them, a belief that their team was in good playoff position but still trying to hit stride to really make a serious push for national title No. 3.

That perception might not have changed after the No. 2 Grizzlies came back in the fourth quarter to survive a defensive struggle for a 10-9 victory over No. 6 Cal Poly, but the wild fans should be leaving Missoula with lost voices, happy faces and an aura of comfort and security for the future. At least they know that the beloved Grizzlies will be making a 14th consecutive postseason trip, which is more than followers of Cal Poly, New Hampshire, Southern Illinois and other three-loss teams can say after a day where a few big-name teams arrived at the edge of playoff oblivion and others held on for life in must-win situations.

For a while, it looked like Cal Poly was going to be the one of the teams to practically punch its playoff ticket on this day. The Mustang defense dominated in the first half, allowing just 99 yards of total offense for the Grizzlies and forcing Montana quarterback Josh Swogger into a 1-of-6 effort with an interception. Matt Brennan was posting a nice day with 10-of-15 passing for 161 yards, and Ramses Barden made big plays early on. But the Mustangs couldn't finish drives for touchdowns, and went to the half with a 6-0 lead that kept the door open for a Montana team that had the defense to turn the game around.

After a third quarter filled with short drives and punts for both teams, Montana's defense made the play that shifted the momentum. Dustin Dlouhy drilled Brennan to force a fumble, and Tyler Joyce pounced on the ball at the Cal Poly 25. A two-yard loss by Swogger on the first offensive play brought out some boobirds from a growing restless crowd of 22,853, but the quarterback rectified himself with a 27-yard strike to Ryan Bagley to give the Grizzlies their first lead of the day at the end of the third quarter.

Montana's defense held Cal Poly to 88 yards of total offense in the second half, but the Mustangs still had another run in them. Cal Poly took advantage of a good drive start and a pass interference penalty to take a 9-7 lead on a 47-yard field goal by Nick Coromelas with just 3:56 to play. When an unproductive Montana offense with a struggling quarterback took over at its own 20 with 3:52 to play, the two-point deficit could just as well have been a mountain to climb.

But Swogger and the Grizzlies heated up. He found Eric Allen for a 29-yard gain on a 2nd and 15, and hit Ryan Bagley for 14 yards to the Cal Poly 45 on fourth and 13. Bagley caught the ball right at the sticks and may have taken a football move back before being tackled short of the first down, but the referees gave Bagley and the Grizzlies the call with forward progress for a first down.

The Grizzlies still had some ground to cover, and completed a 16-play, 76-yard drive with a mix of good plays by the offense and good calls by the coaching staff. Swogger hit Allen coming across the middle for a 17-yard gain on 3rd and seven, and then the Grizzlies burned a Cal Poly blitz on 3rd and 10 with a draw to Reggie Bradshaw that went for 15 yards to the Mustang 10. Three more carries moved it closer, and Dan Carpenter won the game with a 21-yard field goal with seconds remaining.

For Montana, the playoffs are a certainty with an 8-1 record and an outright Big Sky title and seed in the postseason stand as loftier goals for the final two weeks. But the 6-3 Mustangs have to get over a close loss and get right back at it with a must-win game at North Dakota State coming up next week.

"We don't have time to lament and beat ourselves up," said Cal Poly head coach Rich Ellerson. "Everything we've dreamt of and worked for is still on the table. We need to have a record quick turnaround and we just don't have time to dwell on it."

Cal Poly will find plenty of company with teams in that predicament, including squads in Durham, New Hampshire and Carbondale, Illinois that saw their playoff fates take a similar turn in a loss to a team that has more than a postseason berth on its mind.

No. 9 New Hampshire fell behind No. 3 Massachusetts, 28-3, before staging a furious rally to cut the deficit to 28-20 in the fourth quarter. The Wildcats moved to the Massachusetts three-yard line in the final seconds, but a botched play and fumble ended the comeback hopes and dropped a New Hampshire team that spent five weeks at No. 1 to a must-win spot the rest of the way with a 6-3 record. Southern Illinois can feel the Wildcats' pain. The No. 12 Salukis actually led most of the way in their game against No. 7 Youngstown State, but watched the Penguins score two fourth-quarter touchdowns and stop a last ditch effort at the two yard line in a 31-24 victory. Like Montana, Massachusetts and Youngstown State essentially locked up their playoff spots with eight wins and can turn towards a larger goal of guaranteeing at least a couple of postseason home dates.

New Hampshire's loss was just one part of a bad day for the Atlantic 10 bubble teams. No. 15 Richmond, which appeared to be on its way to a postseason berth just three weeks ago, saw pretty much any shot at a second consecutive appearance go away after it fell behind Villanova, 28-0, at halftime for an eventual 31-21 loss. No. 21 Towson hurt its chances in a different way, as the Tigers took a 28-17 fourth-quarter lead before William & Mary rallied for 12 consecutive points and won the game on a 34-yard field goal by Blair Pritchard with five seconds to play. Towson is probably one loss from seeing its postseason dreams fade away, and winning out against Richmond and James Madison will not be easy. No. 22 Maine did salvage the day for the league's bubble teams by keeping its hopes alive by thrashing Northeastern, 30-3.

While Cal Poly, New Hampshire, Southern Illinois and Towson will get to play with their backs against the wall for the first time next week, they will join a group of teams that get to embrace that position for at least the second week in a row. No. 11 Furman bounced back from a bad outing at Appalachian State to beat Elon, 24-13. The Paladins improved to 7-3, and should be safe for a postseason berth with a home win over Georgia Southern in the season finale next week. A schedule that includes Southern Illinois and Illinois State will make the going tougher for No. 14 Northern Iowa, but the Panthers did set up a winner plays on, loser probably goes home game at the Salukis next week by rallying in the fourth quarter to defeat Western Kentucky, 31-20.

No. 19 Montana State and No. 25 Portland State might be the godfathers of this must-win family, but they continue to hang on. The Bobcats earned their sixth consecutive win with a 13-10 triumph over Northern Colorado, and set up a winner-take-all showdown for the Big Sky automatic berth against Montana on Nov. 18. Portland State knocked off Northern Arizona, 34-26, to move one game closer to making the committee seriously look at taking a four-loss at-large team for the first time since 1995. No. 16 San Diego and No. 17 Coastal Carolina also did what they needed to by posting expected victories.

Conference races remain tight throughout the country as well, though the leaders all gained a little more breathing room. No. 10 Tennessee-Martin opened up a one-game lead in the Ohio Valley Conference when it beat Southeast Missouri State, 28-14, and No. 20 Eastern Illinois demolished Tennessee State, 29-3. No. 13 Hampton moved within one victory of capturing the MEAC automatic berth for the third year in a row after knocking off Bethune-Cookman, 34-17. McNeese State continued to hold the inside track in the Southland race after a 34-13 win against Southeastern Louisiana, and Lehigh maintained its lead in the Patriot League with a 23-15 triumph over Colgate.

Massachusetts and No. 4 James Madison (a 44-24 winner over Delaware) share the Atlantic 10 lead, and No. 8 Illinois State (a 38-14 winner over Missouri State) is at the top of the Gateway Conference along with Youngstown State. Those races don't provide much intrigue since all of the teams in the running figure to make the playoffs anyway, but at least they still have to be played out. The same can't be said in the Southern Conference, where No. 1 Appalachian State became the first team to officially clinch a spot in the postseason by earning the league's automatic berth with a 42-13 win over The Citadel. Kevin Richardson had a 79-yard touchdown run and three scores on the day and Corey Lynch notched a return for a touchdown for the second week in a row to lead the Mountaineers, who have won eight in a row and are zeroing in on the top playoff seed to aid a run for back-to-back titles.

Races involving non playoff-eligible teams stayed tight in dramatic fashion. No. 23 Princeton saw Penn rally to force overtime and had to stop a two-point attempt in the second OT for a 31-30 victory that kept it in a three-way tie with No. 18 Harvard and Yale at the top of the Ivy League. No. 5 North Dakota State remained in a tie with No. 24 South Dakota State for the Great West lead, but had to rally from a 24-0 deficit with a furious comeback to beat UC Davis, 28-24.

Below, we'll take a further look at the key developments of I-AA's 10th week of the season.

WEEK 10 NOTEBOOK

Team of the Week: Youngstown State This time, eight wins will be enough. After missing the playoffs with an 8-3 record last year, and not earning a place in the postseason since 2000, the Penguins have looked like a playoff team right from the beginning of the 2006 season. They jumped out to a 6-1 record with wins over Maine and UC Davis, and had a reasonable task of winning two of the final four Gateway games to assure a trip to the playoffs. However, the journey became more complicated right away with a 31-24 home loss to UNI two weeks ago. The Penguins responded to that adversity by dominating in a 27-13 victory at Illinois State last week, and stepped up to the challenge again on Saturday to come back in the fourth quarter to defeat Southern Illinois, 31-24, and effectively lock up a playoff spot. Star running backs stole the show on both sides, with Arkee Whitlock going for 218 yards and three touchdowns for the Salukis only to be upstaged in the fourth quarter by another brilliant day for Youngstown State back Marcus Mason (29 carries, 249 yards, 2 TD), who ran for 170 yards or more for the fifth game in a row. Whitlock's third TD of the game, a 23-yard run early in the third quarter, gave the Salukis a 21-10 lead and plenty of momentum in a game that would have greatly enhanced their playoff chances.

The Penguins stopped a Saluki drive in YSU territory later in the quarter, and began to pick up steam from there. A 35-yard run and a 23-yard reception by Mason helped YSU march down the field to cut the deficit to 21-17 late in the third. The Salukis added a field goal, but YSU tied the score at 24 with five minutes to play on an 18-yard touchdown pass from Zetts to Louis Irizarry. Youngstown State cornerback Codera Jackson picked off a Nick Hill pass in Saluki territory on the ensuing possession, and Mason took over by converting a third and five with a six-yard run and then rumbling 22 yards for a score and a 31-24 lead with 1:33 left. Of course, the coveted playoff spot still couldn't come easy. Marty Hutchinson tackled Hill two yards away from the endzone on a scramble as time expired, and the Penguin faithful can now exhale and feel safe about their playoff status. Youngstown State will hope to win at Western Kentucky and have someone ahead of them fall to earn a seed and create an even clearer path back to prominence.

Mid-Major Team of the Week: Albany

The early talk about the rise of the Northeast Conference centered on Albany. The Great Danes beat Lehigh and Delaware in September, but followed it up by losing to Cornell and Stony Brook to fall off the national radar and behind the early leaders in the NEC. With a 16-6 win at Robert Morris on Saturday, the Great Danes earned their fourth victory in a row and maintained a spot in a three-way tie at the top of the conference. The defense that posted dominant efforts in upset victories was at it again. The Great Danes used suffocating pressure to hold Robert Morris to -51 rushing yards and picked off four passes while forcing Colonial quarterback Eric Cwalinski into a 12-of-30 day. Albany recorded 10 sacks, and did not allow any Robert Morris running back to garner more than nine yards for the game. They limited Robert Morris to 79 yards of total offense, and even got a 21-yard interception return for a score from Dave Nicomini for a 16-0 lead at halftime. The Great Danes still need to beat Monmouth next week and have Stony Brook lose to Central Connecticut State to earn a spot in the Gridiron Classic game on Dec. 2, but the defensive brilliance this week showed why they are still a worthy contender for that spot.

Best Top 25 Win: No. 3 Massachusetts 28, No. 9 New Hampshire 20

No team has cruised through the season as comfortably as the Minutemen, but there were those who doubted the quality of victories coming into this weekend. Massachusetts did own a thrashing at Towson and ended up a play away from beating Navy, but the Minutemen had dominated against the softest Atlantic 10 schedule to this point. They got a big test with a trip to New Hampshire on Saturday, and passed with flying colors for a 28-20 win that featured the same balance that has been evident all season. Quarterback Liam Coen, who finished 11-of-15 for 193 yards and two touchdowns on the day, got things rolling with a pair of touchdown passes for a 14-0 lead with 10:05 left in the second quarter. Then it was Steve Baylark's turn to find the endzone, as the Payton Award candidate running back scored from 38 yards out late in the first half and boosted the lead to 28-3 with a one-yard plunge early in the third quarter. New Hampshire did fight back, with Ricky Santos and David Ball connecting for a pair of touchdowns to cut the Massachusetts lead to 28-20 with 6:48 to play in the fourth quarter. The Wildcats moved to the Massachusetts three yard line with a chance to tie the game and complete a stunning comeback in the final seconds, but John Hatchell forced a Santos fumble on a botched play. Massachusetts ran its winning streak to seven games, the longest since the 2003 season, and all but punched its playoff ticket with a top four seed still clear in sight.

Worst Top 25 Loss: Villanova 31, No. 15 Richmond 21

It wasn't too long ago that Richmond was a serious contender for a playoff spot and even a darkhorse run in the postseason. The Spiders jumped out to a 4-0 start with a win at Duke, but they lost in a battle of unbeaten teams against New Hampshire. Still, they were in good shape with a 5-1 mark before a stunning three-game skid that has knocked the Spiders out of realistic playoff consideration. Despite home losses to Delaware and James Madison in the last two weeks, Richmond's prospects for a postseason berth looked positive with a manageable schedule remaining going into this game. But that outlook changed within one half, as Villanova jumped out to a 28-0 halftime lead in a surprisingly easy offensive day against a Richmond defense that was hailed as one of the top units in I-AA after the first month of the season. Villanova quarterback Marvin Burroughs ran for a pair of touchdowns to put the Wildcats ahead 14-0 early in the second quarter. A three-yard score by Matt Dicken made it 21-0, and the Wildcats added another score with 5:28 left in the half on a 21-yard strike from Burroughs to Matthew Sherry. Richmond fought back in the second half, and even closed the gap to 28-21 when Josh Vaughan scored with 11:09 remaining before the Wildcats got insurance with a 34-yard field goal by Joe Marcoux. A Spider defense that was allowing 2.7 yards per carry gave up 289 rushing yards, and a usually potent running game produced just 12 yards. With a 5-4 overall mark and a 2-4 record in the Atlantic 10, the Spiders' collapse is complete and they become the first playoff-eligible team in this week's top 25 to fall out of the race already.

Best Game: No. 5 North Dakota State 28, UC Davis 24

On a day where New Hampshire, Richmond and Penn made furious comebacks in losses and William & Mary charged back to beat Towson, North Dakota State's 28-point second-half rally against a strong UC Davis defense still takes home the prize as the day's most exciting game. The Aggies appeared to be well on their way to pinning the first I-AA loss on the Bison's record. Quarterback Jon Grant ran for three touchdowns and posted a 19-of-24 effort through the air as the Aggies took a 24-0 halftime lead against the strong Bison defense. The Bison came out like a different team in the second half. Kyle Steffes threw a halfback pass to Jerimiah Wurzbacher to cut the deficit to 24-7, and a 47-yard pass play from Steve Walker to Kole Heckendorf closed the gap to 24-14 late in the third quarter. Steffes ran in from four yards out to make the score 24-21 with 7:06 to play, but the Bison still needed a couple of big plays to complete the turnaround. Craig Dahl intercepted a Grant pass at the 23 yard line to get the Bison the ball back with 2:23 to play and set up a 77- yard drive for the gamewinning touchdown. Walker completed a pair of fourth- down passes to Heckendorf to keep the drive alive, and took the Bison to the UC Davis 10 in the final seconds. From there, he found John Majeski for a touchdown strike with four seconds left to complete the comeback and pull North Dakota State into a tie with South Dakota State for the Great West lead with a 2-0 record. The Bison won't be in the playoffs until 2008, but they can continue to stake their claim as one of the elite teams in I-AA by completing a perfect season against teams from the sub-classification.

Play of the Week: Swogger's fourth and 13 pass to Bagley, or more accurately the close call to give Bagley a first down and keep the Grizzly drive going, could have far-reaching implications. Cal Poly still has to go to North Dakota State, and the Mustangs are now in must-win mode in that game or see their potential spot in the postseason be opened up for someone else. On the other hand, Montana is still in good shape to hold on to a playoff seed, probably at No. 2 overall, by winning out.

Number of the Week: 8

The number of top 25 teams that posted victories on Saturday when a loss would have basically ended their playoff hopes.

Quick Notes: -North Dakota State's comeback was its biggest since erasing a 22-point deficit in a 25-24 win at Montana in 2003.

-Georgia Southern dropped its fourth home game of the season with a 28-10 loss to Wofford. The Eagles, who are 2-4 at home this year, have home winning streaks of 39 (1997-01) and 38 (1985-90) games, which are the longest such streaks in I-AA annals. They had a 141-17 record at Paulson Stadium coming into the 2006 campaign.

- One week after Massachusetts running back Steve Baylark joined Walter Payton Award winners Jerry Azumah and Adrian Peterson as the only I-AA running backs to complete four 1,000-yard campaigns, Harvard's Clifton Dawson added his name to the prestigious list with 120 yards in a 24-7 win over Columbia to bring his season total to 1,034. Dawson, who owns the Ivy League record for career rushing and total touchdowns, boosted his career yardage total to 4,662, just 53 away from the league's all-time record of 4,715 held by Cornell's Ed Marinaro.

-New Hampshire wide receiver David Ball hauled in eight passes for 107 yards in the loss to Massachusetts to close within 334 yards of Jerry Rice's all- time I-AA receiving yardage mark. Ball boosted his Division I record of career touchdown receptions to 56.