Gaming: ACC - An underdog player's paradise

NCAA Football Betting Lines

08/06/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wagering on conference games provides opportunities to cash bets in different ways. For gamblers following the Atlantic Coast Conference, there is really only one trend to pay attention to and that's the underdog angle.

In last year's preview, I mentioned how ACC dogs had won at an amazing 60% clip in league play since 2003, with six consecutive winning seasons. Well, last year was more of the same, as favorites failed to come out on the positive side of the ledger for the seventh straight campaign.

In the 48 conference battles, underdogs came through with a 28-19-1 mark, failing to hit the 60% average by less than one percent. Only two teams were above 50%: Clemson (4-2) and Virginia Tech (4-3). Florida State was the least successful squad at 0-5, while Miami finished 2-5, bringing its ATS record to 7-22 since '05.

Time now to take a team-by-team look at the league with predicted SU overall and conference records for those wagering on over/unders for total victories.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

6) NC STATE - The Wolfpack went 4-6 ATS last season, and 8-1 to the over in its final nine games. The team is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 contests as a home favorite.

Offense - NC State's offense averaged almost seven points more per game last season compared to '08 but that was largely due to an unbelievable 73% touchdown rate inside the red zone. With major question marks at running back and on the line, look for a regression in points scored this season.

Defense - On the positive side, Nate Irving's return will give a shot in the arm to a defense that allowed over 40 ppg. However, the line loses all four starters and the secondary moves forward without a single upperclassman after finishing last in league play against the pass.

Prediction - This will be another trying season in Raleigh with a below-.500 ATS record. (3-9, 1-7)

5) WAKE FOREST - The Demon Deacons were 5-6 ATS in '09. They are 2-5 ATS as road underdogs over the last three years.

Offense - Replacing Riley Skinner, the school's all-time leading passer, will not be easy. Throw in the fact that the offensive line loses three starters that compiled over 100 career starts, and you have a recipe for disaster.

Defense - Last year's defense allowed an average of eight more ppg than the season prior, but that was with only four returning starters. Look for improved efforts across the board as seven come back to Winston-Salem in 2010.

Prediction - Bet against Wake Forest in almost every game the first half of the season. (4-8, 1-7)

4) BOSTON COLLEGE - The Eagles failed to cover their last four games, ending the season at 6-6 ATS. They are 8-3 ATS as home favorites over the last two years, but 0-10 ATS as road favorites over the last four seasons.

Offense - An exceptional ground attack will always keep Boston College afloat even with ineffective quarterback play. Don't be shocked, however, if the passing game improves, as both the signal-caller and the coaches are now in the second year of the system.

Defense - The defense made great second-half adjustments last season holding opponents to only 23 third-quarter points all year long. With the return of 72% of the club's tackles, along with the expected return of linebacker Mark Herzlich, Boston College will have the number one defense in the division.

Prediction - Bet the Eagles every time they are favored at home, and against them when they are favored on the road. (9-3, 5-3)

3) MARYLAND - The Terrapins finished 4-6-1 ATS last year. They are 3-13 ATS as home favorites, but 10-6 ATS as double-digit underdogs over the last six seasons.

Offense - The change from Chris Turner to Jamarr Robinson (zero interceptions in 85 attempts last year) will be a positive one. In addition, the return of a healthy Da'Rel Scott, the top three receivers, and a more experienced offensive line will all boost the offense to its highest scoring output since '03.

Defense - Last year's defense returned just one of its top five tacklers and the results were extremely unflattering. The unit gave up 31.3 ppg, its highest total since 1997. With seven of the top nine tacklers back in 2010, expect a major resurgence.

Prediction - The Terrapins lost five games last year by a touchdown or less. With better luck, they will be one of the most improved teams in the country both SU and ATS. (8-4, 5-3)

2) CLEMSON - The Tigers were 8-5 ATS last season. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.

Offense - The return of quarterback Kyle Parker, who improved his accuracy as the season went along (62% in the final eight Football Bowl Subdivision games after hitting at a 49% in the first five), will keep the Tigers competitive even with the loss of C.J. Spiller.

Defense - Clemson always produces solid defenses regardless of player turnover. The unit has allowed between 16 and 20 ppg each of the last seven seasons, so even with the loss of the leading tackler and both starting cornerbacks don't expect much of a drop off.

Prediction - The Tigers will fly below the radar as most folks might not be aware of the capable replacements at the running back position. Bet them on a weekly basis. (8-4, 5-3)

1) FLORIDA STATE - The Seminoles went 4-8 ATS last year. They are 7-19 ATS off a SU win over the last four seasons and 7-18 ATS as home favorites since '05.

Offense - Florida State's recent troubles had nothing to do with the offense as the Seminoles averaged over 30 points per game for the second straight campaign. Nine starters return so expect another outstanding season.

Defense - This is the area that needed a quick fix and new head coach Jimbo Fisher thinks he found one with the hire of Arizona defensive coordinator Mark Stoops. With better health, especially on the defensive line, look for this unit to turn its fortunes around in a hurry.

Prediction - Even with an eight- or nine-win season, Florida State's ATS mark will not be all that impressive due to high expectations. (8-4, 6-2)

COASTAL DIVISION

6) VIRGINIA - The Cavaliers were 6-5 ATS last year. They went 1-3 ATS as home underdogs in '09 after going 16-5 in Al Groh's first eight years as head coach.

Offense - For a team that finished 118th nationally in total offense, the prospects of improving is slim, particularly when players that accounted for 19 of the 26 touchdowns will not return.

Defense - Virginia came into '08 without a single starter from the defensive line. The '09 team lost 75% of its linebackers. This year's squad returns better depth all around, so don't expect the Cavaliers to get outscored 111-41 in the fourth quarter for a second straight season.

Prediction - New head coach Mike London will raise his team's level of play, so it might not be a bad idea to back the Cavaliers on a weekly basis. (4-8, 1-7)

5) DUKE - The Blue Devils finished 5-4-1 ATS last year. They are 14-8 ATS as road underdogs the last four years but just 3-8 as home underdogs over the last three.

Offense - Despite last season's solid offensive campaign (25 ppg), the Blue Devils scored only three touchdowns inside the red zone in their final six games. They also rushed for just 1.36 ypc in league play. Expect similar production with Sean Renfree taking over at quarterback for Thaddeus Lewis.

Defense - The "D" allowed 212 points over its first nine games for a respectable 23.5 ppg average. However, the unit proceeded to give up 128 points over their final three for a final tally of 28.3 ppg. Look for comparable numbers in 2010.

Prediction - The Blue Devils might not make a big jump in SU play but they should post a third straight above-.500 mark ATS. (4-8, 2-6)

4) GEORGIA TECH - The Yellow Jackets were 8-5-1 ATS last season. They are 16-8 ATS under Paul Johnson.

Offense - If Josh Nesbitt is lost for any significant amount of time, the offense will collapse. And since he runs more than the average quarterback, the likelihood of that taking place is greater than at almost every other school. Also, his two main weapons Jonathan Dwyer and Demaryius Thomas, along with both starting guards, need to be replaced.

Defense - The defense started well under Paul Johnson allowing 10 ppg in the first eight games of 2008, but since then, the "D" has given up an average of 26.5 ppg. Last season, Georgia Tech allowed 4.9 yards per carry, the most in over 20 years. This year's group looks to be similar to '09's in terms of talent and production.

Prediction - After two solid ATS campaigns, look for a drop-off below the .500 mark. (7-5, 4-4)

3) VIRGINIA TECH - The Hokies finished 7-5-1 ATS last year. They are 36-21 ATS off a SU win since '04.

Offense - Not many teams have two running backs that have combined for 2,920 yards and 32 touchdowns in a total of two seasons. In addition, the Hokies also possess a veteran quarterback and a full complement of receivers. Look for them to once again finish first in league play in scoring.

Defense - For as good as the offense is, the defense might be the complete opposite. Last year's unit allowed 3.5 ypc for the first time since 1992. In addition, only three players remain that have started at least 10 games. The Hokies rarely field a lackluster "D", but this year's version could be the exception to the rule.

Prediction - Virginia Tech will lose and fail to cover in week one versus Boise State. (8-4, 5-3)

2) MIAMI-FLORIDA - The Hurricanes were 6-6 ATS last year. They are 14-26 ATS in conference play over the last five years.

Offense - The main objective is to keep quarterback Jacory Harris healthy the entire season. To that end, Orlando Franklin and Joel Figueroa, the two most experienced linemen, will line up at tackle this year, leaving the interior of the line to three players with just seven career starts. The rest of the offense, however, is electric.

Defense - Thirteen of the top 17 tacklers return from a unit that will benefit from another year of experience. This defense has a chance to rival North Carolina's as the top "D" in the division.

Prediction - Keep an eye on the health of the quarterback during fall camp to see if the Hurricanes are worth betting when traveling to Ohio State, Pittsburgh and Clemson for their first three FBS contests. (9-3, 6-2)

1) NORTH CAROLINA - The Tar Heels went 5-6 ATS last season but finished the year covering four of their last six games. They are 4-1 ATS as road underdogs the last two years.

Offense - Regardless of which quarterback (T.J. Yates or Bryn Renner) gets the bulk of the action, North Carolina's offense will put up more points than a season ago. The offensive line, which was banged up throughout the entire '09 campaign, is in much better shape heading into 2010.

Defense - The Tar Heels return seven of the eight players that recorded five or more tackles for loss last season and nine of their top 10 tacklers overall. This is one of the premier defenses in the country

Prediction - North Carolina will have its finest ATS season since going 7-4 six years ago. (9-3, 6-2)

Cbssportskine NCAA Football Betting News

<< Saints add Mark Bradley
Metairie, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Orleans Saints have agreed to terms with wide receiver Mark Bradley on a one-year contract. Bradley was released by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in June. He did not play for Tampa Bay after being claim

<< Yanks ready to renew rivalry with ailing Red Sox
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Alex Rodriguez's milestone homer behind them, the New York Yankees can turn their attention back to just playing baseball. That begins tonight, as another chapter in baseball's fiercest rivalry gets underway when the Bos

<< Reds try not to look past Cubs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Reds head into their final series before an anticipated first-place showdown next week, as they open a three-game set at Wrigley Field with the host Chicago Cubs. Cincinnati leads the National League's Centr

<< Rockies continue set in Pittsburgh
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Rockies aim for a return to winning - and to maintain feasible contention in the National League playoff chase - when they resume a four-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates with game two tonight at PNC Par

<< Brewers welcome Astros to town
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams in the middle of the National League's Central Division square off tonight when the Milwaukee Brewers host the Houston Astros to begin a three-game series at Miller Park. Milwaukee enters the series in third plac

Bills and Spiller agree to terms >>
Buffalo, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Buffalo Bills and first-round pick C.J. Spiller have reportedly agreed to terms, ending the running back's training camp holdout. According to the Buffalo News, it is a five-year deal for the Clemso

Delpo eyeing return? >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Earlier this week, 2009 U.S. Open champ Juan Martin del Potro was spotted back on a tennis court with a racquet in his hand. That's very good news for the sport, especially if you're interested in seeing

Allmendinger extends contract with RPM >>
Watkins Glen, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A.J. Allmendinger has signed a multi-year contract extension with Richard Petty Motorsports to remain as driver of the No. 43 Ford in the Sprint Cup Series. Allmendinger and RPM made the announc

Envy places The Big Journeyman in Boston >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I must admit that I chuckled more than a little bit when I saw some Boston-area writers proclaim that The Big Three in Beantown is now an oversized Big Four after Shaquille O'Neal agreed to terms with the Cel

Jacksonville Jaguars 2010 Season Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Here's hoping Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio and quarterback David Garrard get used to the scorching weather during the dog days of August. After all, the duo is likely to find themselves on the hot seat all

How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

MySportsbook is considered one of the finest football betting sportsbooks according to several surveys performed by independent industry analysts considering such factors as payout accuracy and timeliness, overall quality of website, and bettor satisfaction.

MySportsbook is a large company with strong financial backing. Considered the best sportsbook for betting football online You will find their customer service is second to none and their web site is extremely user friendly and easy-to-use. All major professional sports games are available. Once you signup with MySportsbook, you may never use another online sportsbook again.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football wagering needs.