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09/03/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After months of waiting, the 2010 college football season is ready to kick off its first barrage of Saturday games, and with that comes the unveiling of my inaugural Top 12, followed by each club's power ratings.
1-T) Boise State and Ohio State, 100.5; 3-T) Oklahoma and Alabama, 100; 5) Florida, 99.5; 6) Texas, 99; 7) Nebraska, 98.5; 8-T) Wisconsin and Iowa, 98; 10-T) TCU and Oregon, 97.5; 12) LSU, 96.5
For comparison purposes, here were last year's final Top 10 numbers:
1) Alabama, 108; 2) Florida, 106; 3) Texas, 105.5; 4) TCU, 103.5; 5) Oklahoma, 103; 6) Virginia Tech, 102; 7) Boise State, 101.5; 8-T) Nebraska and Ohio State, 100; 10) Oregon, 98
2009 ATS RECORD
Yours truly went 5-3 during last year's bowl campaign for a final 2009 ATS total of 116-94-2, good for 55 percent.
This season I will continue highlighting the top plays on a weekly basis, especially since those games with extensive write-ups went 25-8-1 between Oct. 1 and the end of the season. I will also try to maintain that 75 percent winning percentage in 2010.
For those reading this column for the first time, I break down my picks into four classifications. The Five-Star plays are those games where my key selections and my "Power Numbers" match. The Three-Star choices are my personal picks, while the Two-Star plays are the "power number" picks -- games with at least a five-point differential between my line and the actual line. Finally, the One-Star plays are my personal secondary selections.
Last season's Five-Star totals wound up at 5-4 (56 percent). The Three-Star choices went 45-24-1 (65 percent), while the Two-Star plays finished at 35-31-1 (53 percent). The One-Star picks ended at 31-35 (47 percent).
So far in 2010, the overall record stands at 1-0-1 as Hawaii (Two-Star) covered against USC and Utah (Three-Star) pushed versus Pittsburgh.
THE LONE FIVE-STAR PLAY
Auburn hosts Arkansas State in its opener this Saturday but one wonders how much the Tigers have prepared for the Red Wolves, especially with a huge conference road game just five days later against Mississippi State.
There is no doubt Auburn will be much improved this season after going 3-5 in SEC play last year. However, do not sell Arkansas State short. The Red Wolves have covered at least one game per season over the last seven years versus a BCS opponent, including a three-point SU loss at Iowa in '09, a victory over Texas A&M in '08, and an eight-point SU loss at Texas in '07. Arkansas State's defense will keep this one much closer than the line suggests.
Take the Red Wolves plus the points.
THREE-STAR PLAYS
Oklahoma State hosts Washington State and, surprisingly, the Cowboys are not favored by at least 20 points. The line is extremely low at 17 considering the Cougars still have major question marks on defense.
It is true Oklahoma State will not be one of the top teams in the Big 12 this season but the Cowboys will still put points on the scoreboard. Defensively, they will struggle with just four returning starters. Still, we are talking Washington State -- not Troy, Tulsa and Texas A&M, the next three opponents that come to Stillwater.
Take Oklahoma State minus the points.
Michigan State and Western Michigan hooked up last Nov. 7 and the Spartans rolled to a 49-14 victory. They also outgained the Broncos by close to 400 yards. Not much has changed since as Michigan State returns the bulk of its skill position players and four of its top five tacklers. On the other side, Western Michigan is without its all-time career passing leader in Tim Hiller and its third all-time leading rusher in Brandon West. The defense loses its top two tacklers along with both starting cornerbacks.
Take Michigan State minus the points.
TWO-STAR PICKS
Three underdogs top the Two-Star choices in week one. Go with Purdue (at Notre Dame), Cincinnati (at Fresno State), and Maryland (versus Navy).
ONE-STAR SELECTIONS
Take Toledo (against Arizona) on Friday night and follow that up with Washington plus the points (at BYU), and Boise State on Monday night (against Virginia Tech).
<< Fire forward McBride to retire after season
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago Fire forward Brian McBride will retire
at the end of the 2010 season, the Major League Soccer team announced on
Friday.
"Brian's retirement is a bittersweet moment for the Fire, Major League Soc
<< Report: Broncos' LenDale White out for season
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denver Broncos running back LenDale White is
reportedly out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon.
The Denver Post cited an NFL source in its report on Friday.
White was hurt during the second quarter
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Jimenez flirted with a 59 Friday during the second round of the European
<< Morgan gets eight games, Volstad six after Nats/Marlins brawl
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Washington Nationals outfielder Nyjer Morgan
was suspended for eight games and Florida Marlins pitcher Chris Volstad was
given a six-game penalty for their roles in Wednesday's benches-clearing
inciden
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Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FC Dallas set a record last weekend after
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On Saturday, the Hoops (9-2-10), one of the league'
Phillies reinstate Gload from DL >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies have reinstated
outfielder/first baseman Ross Gload from the 15-day disabled list.
Gload was placed on the DL with a right groin strain on August 21, retroactive
to August 19. He
D.C. United, Columbus clash again in league play >>
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United interim coach Ben Olsen called
Wednesday's loss to the Columbus Crew in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals "cruel,"
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Saturda
Hurricane Earl forces Boston-Chicago postponement >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Friday's contest between the Chicago White Sox
and Boston Red Sox was rained out.
The threat of Hurricane Earl heading toward Boston forced officials to make
the early postponement and reschedule the con
In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.
Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).
If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).
Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.
New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)
In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:
There was also the possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number (for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a “push” or “no action” and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.
The same game with the same point spread can be considered from the weaker team’s perspective: The Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to win the game and online football betting thus receives or “gets” points given by the stronger team. When a game is stated from the underdog’s perspective the team is listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New England Patriots
Keep in mind that Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog’s perspective; the later is from the favorite’s.
Not a must, but for some a mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by either:
Let’s look at the actual result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21
The favorite, New England, won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by (7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.
Looking at it from the underdog’s perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle bettors.
Mathematically considered, 24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 20 the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you could figure 20 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24 for the Pats).
Emily’s boyfriend understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS result Emily’s boyfriend cashed his bet – giving him money to take her out to a nice dinner.
And now hopefully you understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to joining the fun of sports betting.
To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting and World Series odds.
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