Gaming: Mountain West mediocre outside of league play

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Mountain West's non-conference straight-up records point in a favorable direction at 41-28 over the last two years, but don't be so quick in jumping to the windows to wager on the league against outside competition. The nine teams are an even 34-34-1 against the spread in out-of-conference play since 2008, finishing at .500 both seasons.

There is one way to cash in on the MWC and that's through league play, but you have to pick your spots because favorites are only 57-50-1 (a 53% winning percentage) over the last three seasons. However, the divide between the upper- echelon clubs and the usual bottom-feeders is staggering.

Utah, TCU, BYU and Air Force are an amazing 46-28 (62%) when favored since '07, while the other five clubs are a combined 11-22-1 (34%) as the betting choice. Surprisingly, Air Force leads the way at 9-3 ATS while San Diego State has yet to post a victory at 0-2.

Time now to take a team-by-team look at the league with predicted SU overall and conference records for those wagering on over/unders for total victories.

9) NEW MEXICO - The Lobos went 5-7 ATS last season, but finished the year covering their final three games. They have only one above-.500 ATS season in non-conference play since '04.

Offense - The change to the no-huddle offense last year produced a 57-43 pass- run ratio, a massive difference from the 65-35 run-pass numbers from '08. Even with the modified offense, not a single receiver caught 40 passes. In addition, the offensive line allowed 41 sacks. Don't expect many improvements in 2010 with just five returning starters.

Defense - New Mexico finished 113th nationally in scoring, allowing 36 points per game, but that was with just one career start from its defensive line heading into the season. Look for a slight upgrade as the defense is now in the second year of the new system.

Prediction - The Lobos will still suffer growing pains, especially with a new starting quarterback, so it's doubtful their ATS run at the end of last year will carry into this season. (1-11, 1-7)

8) WYOMING - The Cowboys were 9-3 ATS in '09, a massive turnaround after going 4-18-1 the previous two seasons. They are 15-7 ATS in non-conference play over the last six years.

Offense - The offense did not take off as expected under head coach Dave Christensen, finishing 109th nationally in scoring. Moreover, the Cowboys averaged just 4.4 yards per play, an even lower number than the previous season when they were last in scoring. The offense also failed to impress this past spring, so it is best to temper all enthusiasm heading into the fall.

Defense - Last year's defense gave up an average of 63 more yards per game than the year before. Furthermore, the unit allowed opposing league squads just short of five trips per game inside the red zone. A switch to a 4-3 defense could help, but don't count on it.

Prediction - Given all their negative numbers from a season ago, it was a wonder the Cowboys finished 7-6. Don't forget, they were 6-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Expect a regression both SU and ATS. (3-9, 2-6)

7) UNLV - The Rebels went 3-8 ATS last year. They are 5-15-1 ATS as road underdogs over the last five years.

Offense - New head coach Bobby Hauck will try to mold an experienced offense to greater heights after the unit ranked 77th nationally in scoring. There is plenty of raw talent to work with so look for increased production

Defense - This is the area UNLV needs to improve in order to reach its first bowl game in 10 years. Only five teams in the entire country allowed more total yards than the Rebels number of 456 per game. Expect slight improvement under new defensive coordinator Kraig Paulson.

Prediction - Since 2003, the Rebels have recorded just one victory over teams with winning records. Nonetheless, the losing mentality could very well evaporate under new leadership so monitor the club's progress early on. (3-10, 2-6)

6) COLORADO STATE - The Rams were 3-8 ATS last year, 0-6 in their final six games. They are 6-1 ATS as home underdogs, but 1-6 as road dogs over the last two years.

Offense - Colorado State entered last season with the most experienced offensive line in the country. Unfortunately, four starters have since departed, leaving the unit with just 30 career starts. There is some hope, however, as former UCLA running back Raymond Carter dominated in the spring and the Rams' quarterback play can't be any worse than it was in '09.

Defense - Last year's defense was extremely weak allowing 30 ppg. Moreover, the unit was dead last nationally in third-down situations. However, 11 of the top 13 tacklers return after only five of the top 12 came back last season. In addition, linebacker Ricky Brewer returns after missing all of '09. Colorado State will have one of the most improved defenses in the country.

Prediction - The Rams underachieved last year against the spread. This season they will overachieve. (4-8, 3-5)

5) SAN DIEGO STATE - The Aztecs finished 4-6-1 ATS last season. They are 2-8 ATS off a SU win over the last four years.

Offense - San Diego State's offense did not progress as expected last season (23 ppg from 19) but the Aztecs still jumped from last place to the fourth spot in total offense in MWC play. And that was without star wide receiver Vincent Brown, who missed the last five games due to injury. Look for the offense to have its highest scoring average since 1996.

Defense - Former New Mexico head coach Rocky Long took over the defense last season and the results were positive. The Aztecs allowed 30.5 ppg after giving up 37 the year before, and opposing league quarterbacks were held to a 59% completion rate compared to the 69% given up in '08. However, they lose four of their fop five tacklers, which could prevent a quick start to the season.

Prediction - Bet against San Diego State at New Mexico State on Sept. 11. (5-7, 3-5)

4) BYU - The Cougars went 7-6 ATS last year. They are 0-3 ATS as road underdogs over the last three years.

Offense - Freshman quarterback Jake Heaps should be the next great BYU signal- caller, but it's doubtful he'll duplicate the numbers Max Hall compiled last season. In addition, he won't have three-time 1,000-yard rusher Harvey Unga backing him up, as the running back is off to the NFL.

Defense - BYU returns only 56% of its defensive lettermen, the lowest total since '04 when the unit allowed 27 ppg. Moreover, the Cougars will be without Jan Jorgensen, the MWC's all-time sack and tackles for loss leader.

Prediction - This will be a tough year to make money betting on BYU. (7-5, 5-3)

3) UTAH - The Utes finished 6-7 ATS last season, but went 3-0 to end the year. They are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs since 1997.

Offense - Only four starters returned last season and the offense still averaged 30 ppg. The key to Utah's success was its play inside the red zone. The Utes were number one in league play inside the opponents' 20-yard line with 26 scores in 29 opportunities. This season, eight starters come back, so another top offensive campaign should be on its way.

Defense - The Utes allowed 24 ppg back in '05 (highest total since 1996) partly because only four starters returned. Nevertheless, they did bring back five of the top eight leading tacklers. This season, seven starters have departed, and to make matters worse that group includes the top four tacklers.

Prediction - Play the over in most of Utah's games, especially in week two when UNLV comes to town. (9-3, 6-2)

2) AIR FORCE - The Falcons were 7-5 ATS in '09, 5-1 in their final six games. They are 5-1 as road favorites over the last three seasons.

Offense - Air Force returns 100% of its rushing and passing totals from last year but the offensive line loses all five starters. However, the Falcons have fared well during years in which they've possessed an inexperienced line. For example, back in '04, the unit returned seven career starts while breaking in a freshman quarterback and the club still averaged 277 ypg on 4.7 ypc.

Defense - Air Force ranked 10th nationally in scoring defense and 11th in total defense last season. Only six starters return but that shouldn't be any cause for concern, as the club has lost five starters (or more) every year since 1992.

Prediction - The Falcons have been one of the most consistent ATS teams in the country the last three years at 23-13 so look for another solid season. (9-3, 6-2)

1) TCU - The Horned Frogs went 8-4 ATS last season. They are an incredible 18-6 as home favorites over the last five years.

Offense - When people think of TCU, they immediately think defense. However, the Frogs finished fifth nationally in scoring and seventh in total offense. This side of the ball loses only two starters so look for another outstanding offensive season.

Defense - Last year's defense returned just four starters with nine players making their first career start. All the unit did was finish number one in the nation allowing 240 yards per game. This year, the club loses its top lineman, linebacker and both starting cornerbacks but those losses shouldn't stop the "D" from another remarkable campaign.

Prediction - The MWC champ has gone undefeated SU in league play each of the last six years. Expect number seven to come this season. TCU will also roll to a 6-2 ATS conference mark for the third straight season. (12-0, 8-0)