Travers is wide-open Mid-Summer Derby

Horseracing Betting Lines

08/25/2010 - Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Saturday's $1 million Travers Stakes has attracted an evenly matched field of 11 three-year-olds. Saratoga's Mid- Summer Derby will be conducted over the main track at 1 1/4-miles.

Local winner A Little Warm, the 7-2 favorite, will try to sweep the two major races for three-year-olds at the track. Trained by Tony Dutrow, the colt is coming off an eye-catching victory in the Jim Dandy Stakes last month.

"He had a big effort in Delaware and four weeks after that he came up here and had another big effort in the Jim Dandy," said Dutrow.

A Little Warm, owned by Edward Evans, will start from post five with John Velazquez riding. Velazquez has been aboard the colt the last two races and won the 2005 Travers with Flower Alley.

Early this year the three-year-old won the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park and followed with second-place finishes in the Hutcheson and Louisiana Derby. He returned to racing in June with an allowance win at Delaware Park.

A Little Warm has lifetime earnings of $608,880 in nine starts with four wins and four seconds.

The 4-1 second choice is Haskell Invitational runner-up Trappe Shot. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the chestnut colt will break from post two with rider Alan Garcia.

"We're all happy right now," McLaughlin said. "We came to a conclusion, and we're going to enter Trappe Shot in the Travers. The prestige of the Travers is very important to the (owners) Bradys and to the McLaughlins. The Travers is wide-open. It looks like there are seven horses who could win the Travers. He's fit and he's ready to go."

Owned by Nicholas and Jim Brady, Trappe Shot won Monmouth Park's Long Branch Stakes leading into the Haskell. The colt has won four of six lifetime starts for $387,050.

Jockey Calvin Borel will once again be aboard Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver on Saturday. Three years ago Borel guided Derby champ Street Sense to victory in the Travers.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Super Saver will break from the far outside post for owner WinStar Farm. The colt is 6-1 in the program along with Afleet Express, who was third in the Jim Dandy.

Super Saver is coming off a fourth-place finish in the Haskell Invitational behind Preakness champ Lookin At Lucky. 'Lucky' is out of the Travers after having a fever following his Monmouth Park victory.

"I believe the Haskell has moved him forward," said Pletcher. "And I would expect an improved performance from him in what appears to be a wide-open race."

Super Saver has earned more than $1.8 million in nine career starts with three wins. Along with the Run for the Roses victory this year he was third in the Tampa Bay Derby, second in the Arkansas Derby and eighth in the Preakness.

Here is the full field in post position order for the 141st Travers: Miner's Reserve, David Cohen, 12-1; Trappe Shot, Alan Garcia, 4-1; Admiral Alex, Kent Desormeaux, 12-1; First Dude, Ramon Dominguez, 8-1; A Little Warm, John Velazquez, 7-2; Ice Box, Julien Leparoux, 10-1; Afleet Express, Javier Castellano, 6-1; Fly Down, Jose Lezcano, 8-1; Friend Or Foe, Rajiv Maragh, 15-1; Afleet Again, Cornelio Velasquez, 30-1 and Super Saver, Calvin Borel, 6-1.

Post-time on Saturday is scheduled for 5:46 p.m. (et).

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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